SCIENCE IS AT ITS END, ALL THE IMPORTANT THINGS               W. Beaty
HAVE ALREADY BEEN DISCOVERED

It seems that every so often a fairly large group of scientists begin to
assert that science is just about complete, that the vast unknown is gone,
and that major research can stop because we now know everything except the
details.

For those who fall under the spell of this sort of belief, be aware that a
similar belief was taking hold at the turn of the last century.  This was
just before Relativity and Quantum Mechanics appeared on the scene and
opened up new realms for exploration. 


From 1924:

  "When I began my physical studies [in Munich in 1874] and sought advice
from my venerable teacher Philipp von Jolly... he portrayed to me physics
as a highly developed, almost fully matured science... Possibly in one or
another nook there would perhaps be a dust particle or a small bubble to
be examined and classified, but the system as a whole stood there fairly
secured, and theoretical physics approached visibly that degree of
perfection which, for example, geometry has had already for centuries."
   - from a 1924 lecture by Max Planck   (Sci. Am, Feb 1996 p.10)


From 1888:

"We are probably nearing the limit of all we can know about astronomy." 
  - Simon Newcomb, astronomer


From 1894:

 "The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have
  all been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the
  possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of new
  discoveries is exceedingly remote.... Our future discoveries must be
  looked for in the sixth place of decimals."  Albert. A. Michelson,
  speech at the dedication of Ryerson Physics Lab, U. of Chicago  1894


From a bit earlier:

 "So many centuries after the Creation, it is unlikely that anyone could
  find hitherto unknown lands of any value." 
      - Spanish Royal Commission, rejecting Christopher Columbus' proposal
        to sail west.

Just because the recognized size of the Unknown in the world seems small,
don't assume that it is, in fact, small.  The size of the Unknown is a
guesstimate.  It's true size is...  unknown!  Just when all sensible
researchers become convinced that a field of science is exhausted, a new
discovery can reveal the existence of a vast and unexplored territory
which had up to that moment been invisible to the majority.

And so there are two paths to progress in science.  One path is to push
forward into a diminishing group of recognized, but as yet uninvestigated,
areas.  The other path is to search for new areas whose existence is not
suspected.  

To pursue the latter, look to nature and search for phenomena which cannot
be explained using current theory.  Note that this invariably involves
going against majority opinion and giving weight to events which rational
researchers will dismiss as being impossible.  Discoveries which are
capable of significantly altering the current theories are ALWAYS
impossible when viewed in light of those current theories.

Also, listen to the voices of the small minority of researchers who
already are exploring unsuspected new realms, but who have been ignored by
the majority as being unconventional.  Sometimes the new paths are still
awaiting our discovery.  However, at other times they have already been
discovered, but their existence is being denied on the grounds that they
are forbidden by accepted theories, or that they are too crazy to be true. 

More food for thought:

  "In real life, every field of science is incomplete, and most of them 
  - whatever the record of accomplisment during the last 200 years - are
  still in their very earliest stages."  -Lewis Thomas

  "On any Tuesday morning, if asked, a good working scientist will tell
   you with some self-satisfaction that the affairs of his field are
   nicely in order, that things are finally looking clear and making
   sense, and all is well.  But come back again on another Tuesday, and
   the roof may have just fallen in on his life's work."  -Lewis Thomas

  "No matter how we may single out a complex from nature...its
   theoretical treatment will never prove to be ultimately
   conclusive... I believe that this process of deepening of theory has
   no limits."  - Albert Einstein, 1917