Certainty Theory

With the possible exception of a sunrise or sunset, few things outside of mathematics can be predicted or proven with certainty. In mathematics, probability theory is used to deal with uncertainty. In life there is certainty theory.

Certainty theory requires the assignment of a number between 0 and 100 that reflects belief in an answer. In the Decision Maker expert system, the user assigns a certainty factor (CF) to one or more question responses (facts). The minimum CF of the facts becomes the CF of the solution, unless multiple rules arrive at the same solution. In such cases, the certainty of the solution is calculated according to the formula A + B - A*B/100, where A and B are the CF of solutions reached by separate rules. This definition was first used in the expert systems developed through Edward Shortliffes's work (MYCIN) for combining evidence.

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http://www.eskimo.com/~mighetto/lscert.htm last update March 23, 2001

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