Finally, it’s just a few hours away, December 21, 2012, the end of the Mayan calendar, or at least the end of the current long count.  For reasons which escape me many believe that’s the end of the world.

By which method?

Nibiru

A hypothetical planet that orbits our sun with an extremely elliptical comet-like orbit which crosses the Earth’s orbit causing all sorts of mayhem on it’s close approach, not visible yet.  If it were a comin’ we would have seen it by now.

Pole Shifts

There are two varieties, physical pole shifts where the actual land that was over say, the North pole, suddenly ends up at the equator, and magnetic pole shifts, where the North and South trade places, they threaten our doom, but really are they feasible and if so how threatening are they?

Magnetic

As it happens, magnetic pole shifts have occurred many times throughout Earth’s history and there is no relationships between pole shifts and mass extinction events.  Suggestions that we will die from radiation exposure if the magnetic field suddenly disappears during a pole shift are erroneous.  The Earth’s atmosphere is sufficiently thick that it provides adequate shielding even when no magnetic field is present.  It’s not 100% shielding, but it’s sufficient to limit the level of radiation to which we are exposed to safe levels, unless you’re flying in an aircraft mostly above the atmosphere.  Frequent flyers may get cooked.

Other things that might get cooked are our satellites.  There is already some indication that a magnetic pole shift is under way.  The rate of movement of the North magnetic pole has increased dramatically over the last 100 years and moving itself from Northern Canada towards Siberia, currently averaging 30-40 miles per year.  Also, there is a secondary north pole in the South Atlantic that is nearly as strong as the South pole, and largely cancels the magnetic field over that region. Over that area where there is no significant magnetic field to protect overflying satellites, several have suffered early radiation induced deaths.

So if the field continues to weaken, other similar anomalies pop-up, what we’re likely to see are several effects.  An increase in Aurora over lower latitudes as lines of force and charged particles from the sun that follow them, enter the atmosphere at non-traditional places.  An increase in power line problems as magnetic fields in flux induce huge currents of very low frequency and cook transformers.

Some species of migratory animals which rely on the Earth’s magnetic field for guidance may find themselves in trouble if the change happens too fast for them to adapt.  It could play havoc on human navigation with our GPS satellites cooked and compasses pointing to random locations.  We might have to go back to older technology such as Loran, which relies on fixed point radio transmitters on Earth, or even navigate by the stars.  A rapid pole shift could get exciting but it wouldn’t spell the end to our species.

Physical

There is anecdotal evidence of a physical pole shift in the Bible, where the day was extended, Joshua 10:13-14, and then there are the frozen Wooly Mammoth’s with bit’s of Apple still in their mouths in regions which are now arctic.  Something had to fast freeze them in order that they were frozen before they could even finish the Apple’s they were munching on.

There isn’t a lot of geological evidence for anything rapid; slow continental drift yes, but not in a few seconds or minutes massive drift.  Once you get to a depth of around 500 miles, the mantle is not really in a solid state, more of a super viscous liquid state.  So things can move, but slowly, because the viscosity of the material is very high.

So I’m not holding my breath for the world to end.  I won’t be losing sleep over it tonight.  In fact, I’ll be losing sleep over the fact that it won’t end and I’ll wake up and still have to deal with the realities of life tomorrow.  But those of you who believe it will, write me a check and drop it in the mail, tonight.