Future of Radio, Television, Telephony, Internet

In the present day most of our transmissions are discrete units where the signal corresponds directly with an information path. An AM station transmits a program, and FM station transmits a program, a TV station transmits an audio and visual program.

Gradually we are seeing a trend towards the breakdown of this 1:1 relationship in favor of a continuous digital RF media and multiple multiplexed information channels. Cell phone networks, WiFi, and WiMax networks are examples of this.

The availability of spread-spectrum technologies and orthogonal frequency division modulation technologies made it possible for multiple transmitters to share spectral space and to transmit and extract information even when noise actually exceeds signal.

We are seeing AM, FM, and TV stations move to digital transmission and virtually all of the new digital systems use a orthogonal frequency division modulation techniques because of the noise immunity and lack of susceptibility to rapid fading that the technique provides.

We are seeing multiple information channels being multiplexed onto these AM, FM, and TV digital signals just as with cellular and WiMax capability.

As the demand for faster transmission rates and the availability of faster and faster digital signal processors capable of encoding those rates continues, the bandwidth of each transmitted signal widens.

We will see the end of the discrete 1:1 information flow to transmitted signal disappear entirely for terrestrial transmissions. Eventually the special purpose nature of various transmissions will disappear and we'll end up with ultra wide broadband networks with virtually all communications multiplexed onto those networks.

The digital bandwidth available will eventually eliminate the need for nodes to be wired together, they'll start routing information between themselves directly. Smart routing will be developed that will find optimal routes on the fly allowing nodes to be added / dropped at random with no effect on service, automatic hand-off will allow information streams to follow moving targets as with present day cellular.

This sort of infrastructure is inevitable because it will make the most efficient use of bandwidth and power while providing almost infinite functional flexibility.

Devices will be less inclined to have significant data storage, instead, you'll access data over the network from a centralized location. This will greatly increase interoperability between devices as well as facilitate communications between people.

There are going to be challenges, organizational issues, who owns what when any given node will carry anybodies and everybodies traffic of all kinds?

Privacy, any veil of privacy is going to disappear. Privacy itself has already disappeared, the current administration demonstrated that it's OK to completely ignore the constitution when it comes to unreasonable search and seizure and it's implications for domestic spying. Privacy is already gone.

We'll be able to use our electronic gadgets everywhere, that will be another assault on personal privacy because virtually everywhere there will be laptops with built-in cameras, cell-phone with built-in cameras. However, strong end-to-end encryption will become indispensable. It will need to be based upon something other than factoring the product of large primes because quantum computers will render that task trivial, unless advances in number theory does so first.

The media center in your home and car will no longer tune stations that occupy certain frequencies, instead it will tune addresses. Narrowcasting will largely replace broadcasting.

The ubiquitous nature of this new ultra-broadband everything media will not lend itself well to respecting national borders and this is going to change the nature of governments as well as society greatly.

One social aspect I see coming is that the total lack of privacy will lead us to the recognition that nobody is without sin in a social sense at least, and perhaps that will force laws to be brought more inline with our true nature, what we are, as opposed to what we like to pretend we are, and the need to jail 2% of our population will go away, and hopefully a fair amount of the current social hippocracy .

It's going to be an interesting experiment, if we manage to survive the current era so that it can unfold.

Virtenna

Virtenna (at http://www.virtenna.com/) is kind of a virtual internet tuner. You select a city and then you can select from various radio and television stations in that city to listen to or watch.

It's a neat idea, easy to use, but the downside is that right now it only lists a handful of major cities around the world. If it were made more comprehensive it would be an incredible service.

Radio Heritage Foundation

I received e-mail from the Radio Heritage Foundation and after taking a look at their website decided it was a resource that was worthy of mention. I've added it to the resources on the right column under Radio History.

This site is rich with material covering history, current events, pirate radio, foreign radio, all with a substantial degree of depth. Many very cool photographs and much in depth information. I'd write more about it but am pressed for time at the moment; however, let me assure you that this site will keep you entertained and informed for many hours.

Rainier Radio

I received e-mail today from one of my early partners in bootleg and then later legitimate radio informing me of a new website that has been created by the Seattle community colleges that has a lot of interesting radio history for the Pacific Northwest.

There are jingles for various local radio stations including KAYO, KJRB, KJR, many classical radio shows, old mysteries and other radio drama.

Unfortunately, there isn't much in the way of 60's era regular radio shows on stations like KJR and KOL, a lot of radio checks from various DJ's but not full programs.

They've also got a streaming online station you can listen to as well as many photos.

For being new though there is a wealth of material there and hopefully more will come as it evolves. Enjoy!

Cell Phone and Cell Tower Safety

I continue to receive e-mail from folks who are concerned about cell phone and cell tower safety.

It is my position that cell towers do not represent a safety risk, at least in so much as the RF radiation from them being a health hazard is concerned. I do believe that modern hand held cell phones, which operate with a maximum power of 100mw but typically much less than that, pose a very minimal but non-zero risk, and that the older 3 watt and 5 watt units were a significant health risk.

Regarding risks posed by cell towers, you may wish to read this article entitled, "Health Symptoms Aren't Linked to Cell Tower Emissions, Study Finds..." in Science Daily.

I've added a new section to the sidebar links with related information, and in particular there is a new link to this FCC Website, "Human Exposure To Radio Frequency Fields from Cellular and PCS Transmitters".

It may seem odd that I'd take a position that cell towers are not harmful, whereas cell phones may pose some health risks, but the reason is very simple. RF fields decrease rapidly with increasing distance from the emitter. You hold a cell phone up to the side of your skull where there are only a few millimeters from your cell phone antenna to your brain. But it is unlikely you will get any closer than tens of meters to a cell tower antenna. In short, the exposure you will receive from a cell phone that you use will exceed that from a tower by a factor of thousands.

If you really want to get excited about RF fields, I'd be much more concerned about these things in this order, HAARP (High Active Aurora Research Program), high power RADAR, UHF television stations, VHF television stations, FM stations, AC wiring in your house, CRT televisions and computer monitors, AC above ground transmission lines, ULF submarine communications systems.

What all of these things have in common is that they either operate at power levels that are high enough to have thermal effects on people close to them, or they operate on frequencies that are low enough to cause ion transport issues across cell walls, both of which are known mechanisms that can induce cancer and other health problems. HAARP has the unique distinction of having both of these properties making it a double threat to health.

With respect to cell phones and cell towers, what I would really like to find are recent large scale studies that attempt to analyze statistical correlations between living in proximity to cell towers and health issues, and studies that do the same for cell phone usage. My hunch is that no health issues will be related to cell towers, save maybe for one falling and injuring someone physically, but that there may be some issues with heavy uses of cell phones although I don't expect that to be significant. But I'm really interested in actual numbers rather than conjecture and sensationalistic crapolla.

One issue to be aware of is that when you read of long term studies finding risks, and those are studies that go back ten years or more; you are getting into an era when high powered, as much as five watt, handsets were used that did cause thermal effects, and it is not at all surprising to me that those sets did cause significant health issues.

Stupid Radio Commercials

Last night I found myself I wish I could secretly break-in to KVI 570 and replace their stupid commercials.

Listening to coast-to-coast and when it ended a commercial...

Men... Are you finding that you are urinating more frequently?

Do you sometimes wake-up at night to urinate?

Now be honest, how's your sex life been lately?

Super-beta prostate contains 10,000 times the active ingredient found in Saw Palmetto... yada yada yada..

Anyway, I'd add a testimonial, I mean what's more effective than a testimonial?

"Hi, My name is Ivan P. Freely. Lately I've been getting up in the middle of the night to urinate and so I decided to try Super-Beta-Prostate.

Boy did it work! The sex that night was fantastic.. And now I sleep like a log, no more getting up at night to urinate.

Unfortunately, that night was the last night I had sex, seems the wife has problems with the no more getting up at night to urinate. She much preferred that I woke up and got up first.

Seems to me like this era is a almost like a century ago with all the snake oil being pedaled.

Radio Propogation

I continue to receive comments and e-mail to the effect that the propagation changes are cyclic, part of the solar cycle.

Let me make it clear that I have been into radio since my elementary school days, I am 49 years old now. I've owned shortwave and AM receivers across that entire time frame, and AM/SW/TV DXing has been a hobby of mine also across that entire time frame.

Conditions are too noisy for effective DXing below the AM band in this area. There is a lot of power line harmonics creating interference to the long wave band. City Light, the power company here, seems to have a policy of replacing defective insulators only after someone is electrocuted or the pole catches fire. I have phoned in insulators visibly arcing over only to have the calls repeatedly ignored for months on end.

I don't have the equipment for past the UHF television band or I'd be exploring frequencies below and above as well.

I am well aware of the solar cycle. People commonly refer to it as an 11 year cycle because peaks come, on average, every 11 years. It is really a 22-year cycle because the magnetic field reverses every peak and it takes 22 years to return to the same state and magnetic polarity.

The maximum usable frequency, that is the highest frequency which will be returned back to the Earth from the ionosphere generally follows three things; the solar cycle, the MUF is highest during solar peaks, the season, the MUF is generally highest in summer and lowest in winter, and daily, the MUF is generally highest in the daytime, particularly mid-day, and lowest at night.

So during solar minimum, during the winter, late in the night, is the time when the MUF would be the lowest, rarely above 6 Mhz or so under those conditions. I've been listening to a signal on 9484Khz now (9.484 Mhz) that has been coming in strong for quite some time tonight. On other nights I've been able to listen to signals as high as 18 Mhz. Several decades ago this would have been rare for this part of the solar cycle, this time of year, at night. Now it has become common.

When I was young, sporadic E-skip events that would bring the MUF up to television channel 2, 54-60 Mhz, was a relatively rare event except during the very peak of the solar cycle. Now the MUF reaching up to channel 10, 192-198 Mhz, during solar peaks, has become about as common as reaching channel 2-3 was several decades ago. During solar maximums, the MUF going above channels 2-3 has become so regular that it can hardly be described as "sporadic" E-skip anymore. There is nothing sporadic about it.

At the same time the MUF has increased, so has medium wave absorption, and AM stations that used to be easily and reliably receivable no longer are. AM stations in Vancouver BC, only about 100 miles from where I am, used to be easily receivable here, no longer.

Yes, these things do vary with the sunspot cycle, but superimposed on that cycle has been a steady rising of the MUF and AM absorption over the last several decades. The activity of the Sun also has increased, with the last solar peak being the most intense on record, but even during solar minimums, even during times when zero sunspots have been visible, the MUF and AM absorption have both been more than what they were when I was younger.

There are many potential factors; the weakening of the Earth's magnetic field allowing the solar wind to interact with it more may be a factor. Changing atmospheric chemistry and resulting changes in refractive index of the ionosphere under given conditions may be a factor. Changes in the heat distribution in the atmosphere and resulting changes in refractive index might be a factor. Increasing solar activity over the longer term may be a factor. Artificially increased ionization by HAARP and similar activities may be a factor. The introduction of halides into the atmosphere, Bromine added as part of an anti-foaming agent in jet fuel, the solid rocket boosters of the shuttle having a chlorine compound, these may be factors. There are so many potential causes that I don't know if it's even possible to sort them out. There are probably more that I haven't thought of.

Radio Propagation Changes

Well, the net is an interesting place. I did some digging and found that are in fact hundreds if not thousands of articles dealing with the topic of radio propagation and atmospheric chemistry.

There is interesting chemistry in the middle atmosphere between 15Km and 90Km in altitude, and this overlaps the "D" layer of the ionosphere, extending from approximately 50Km to 90Km, which is responsible for much of the absorption of radio signals below about 10 MHz.

The concentration of water vapor in the middle atmosphere has been increasing over time and thought to be a consequence of global warming.

The concentration of ozone has been decreasing on the whole though the variation caused by changes in solar UV radiation over the 11 year solar cycle are greater than the rate of decline so during the ascending part of the solar cycle the ozone depletion is masked or even partially reversed, and during the descending part, exaggerated.

Above 15Km, the atmosphere gets hotter rather than cooler. This increase in temperature is primarily the result of heating caused by UV radiation being absorbed by ozone. It has been known that the suns UV output varies considerably over the solar cycle, as much as 200% at the shortest UV wavelengths and as much as 30-40% at 250 nm.

Lately, the Suns activity overall has been increasing. We're presently at a solar minimum, but on top of that 11-year cycle there seems to be a longer term increase in UV output. Observations of the UV output of other similar stars shows that this is actually "normal" behavior for a star like our Sun. UV is produced in the upper reaches of the Sun's atmosphere and is therefore more affected by magnetic changes than visible light from the photosphere.

So increase in water vapor which results in increased ionization increases atmospheric absorption up to about 10Mhz. Decreases in ozone allow UV to penetrate further increasing ionization at lower altitudes where the effect mainly is to increase absorption. And increases in the Sun's UV output increases ionization at all levels which increases absorption at lower radio frequencies and reflections at higher frequencies.

While I was able to find information with respect to the role water vapor, ozone, and chlorine play in atmospheric ionization, I was not able to find anything regarding CO2 and methane, also increasing in concentration, so I don't know what roles they may play.

Suffice it to say there is not only one but multiple factors affecting radio propagation. So where will this go in the future? Well at this point we really don't know what will happen with the Suns activity. We can be reasonably certain global warming will increase for some time. Levels of chlorine will likely increase and ozone will likely deplete for some time. So I think it likely that we will see existing trends continue. Lower frequencies will become more useless for long distance communication and the maximum usable frequency will continue to increase on average.

New Look

Hope you don't mind the new look. I redesigned the game section here and people seemed to like the change so thought I'd do the same for this Radio Blog but I don't know how much cross-over there is between radioheads and gamers. If you find it excessively ugly say so.

Radio - AM Propogation

I'm not sure if I'm noticing over time, a steady decrease in the propagation characteristics of the AM radio band, particularly those frequencies above 1 Mhz, or a steady degradation of the performance of my AM receivers and a lack of quality in newer receivers.

I live in Shoreline, WA, just north of Seattle (about 13 miles north of downtown Seattle). I used to be able to receive CFUN in Vancouver, BC, Canada, about 100 miles to the north, at about S8 on my receivers that had an S-meter and strong enough, save for the occasional night time fade, to be listenable.

For the last few years though, CFUN barely comes in at all, not even S2 on the S-meter anymore and the noise level is too high to tolerate listening, even at times to be intelligible. Even many local stations which used to be solid are now marginal, particularly on the high end of the band.

At the same time AM propagation seems to have suffered, the higher shortwave bands seem to be alive at times of the year and times of the day that they wouldn't have been in the past and sporadic E-skip on the low VHF TV channels has almost become so regular that calling it "sporadic" anymore seems inappropriate. It seems to occur more frequently now during the winter months during a solar minimum than it used to during a solar maximum in the summer. And during the last solar maximum, on one occasion I got skip all the way up to channel 10, and for all I know it may have gone past that but there are local stations on 11, 12, and 13 that would have required a very strong signal to overrun.

I'm wondering if this is the result of changing atmospheric chemistry, or a general increase in RF power levels causing an increase in ionization, or HAARP, or some other factor(s).